Salem Housing Needs and Demand Analysis Public Meeting - July 23, 2015Salem Housing Needs and Demand Analysis
Public Meeting
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Presented by the Metropolitan Area Planning Council
Salem Housing Needs and Demand Analysis - Agenda
1.Welcome and Introductions
2.About the Salem Housing Needs & Demand
Analysis project
3.Housing Needs & Demand in Salem/ Q&A
4.Dialogue
5.Adjourn
Introduction: MAPC & Our Work
•Regional planning agency created in 1963
•Serves 101 municipalities with a combined
population of 3+ million
•MetroFuture establishes a vision for the area
based on the input of a variety of stakeholders
•Housing goals include increasing the regional stock
with a variety of housing types and address issues
of fair housing choice
•MAPC has worked with several municipalities to
coordinate these regional goals with local
objectives and identify local strategies through the
development of Housing Plans
Salem Housing Needs & Demand Analysis
•When did you move here and into what kind of home?
•Where do you live now?
•If you stay, what kind of living situation will you want?
30s
married,
employed,
kids?
60s
retire,
downsize?
40s & 50s
kids move out, travel, save for retirement?
20s
single,
career
development?
70+ or better
age in place?
Salem Housing:
What’s for certain? What is changing?
Salem Housing Needs and Demand Analysis
Salem provides an attractive place to live
The last decade indicates that there is demand
Development continued through the recession
and will continue to occur
The city is positioned to shape development that
addresses housing needs for now and future
generations
Salem Housing Needs and Demand Analysis
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
15 -
19
20 -
24
25 -
29
30 -
34
35 -
39
40 -
44
45 -
49
50 -
54
55 -
59
60 -
64
65 -
69
70 -
74
75 -
79
80 -
84
85
plus
Age
2040, Status Quo
Boomer Retirement is Looming
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
2010 In Labor Force
Not In Labor Force
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
2020, Status Quo
Baby Boomers (born
1945 – 1970) comprise
49% of labor force
One million workers now
over the age of 40 will
retire by 2030 (39% of
labor force)
Existing population is
insufficient to fill vacant
positions
Baby
Boomers
Baby
Boomers
Baby
Boomers
Source: American Community Survey, MAPC Population and Household Projections, 2014
Most housing demand will be in urban communities
Two-thirds of demand will be for multifamily
22,700 31,500 38,100 51,300
25,900 15,700 11,500
13,000
60,200
28,600 14,400
14,600
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Inner Core Regional Urban
Centers
Maturing Suburbs Developing Suburbs Projected Housing Unit Demand, 2010 - 2030 Housing Unit Demand by Type and Tenure, 2010 - 2030,
Stronger Region Scenario
Metro Boston Community Types
Multifamily - Rent
Multifamily - Own
Single Family -
Own
A New Paradigm of Housing Demand
Current population is 41,320 people.
Could grow between 2,348 to 5,559 by 2030.
Population Growth – Two Paths
42,094
42,894
38,091
40,407
41,320
43,163
45,036
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Population Status Quo Strong Region
Source: U.S. Census; MAPC Projections
Household Size on the Decline
Average household size to decline to 2.2 by 2030
2.05
2.1
2.15
2.2
2.25
2.3
2.35
2.4
2.45
2.5
Salem Regional Urban Centers North Shore MAPC Region
2000
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Housing Needs Change with Age – Status Quo
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
15-34 35-54 55-74 75+ Number of Housing Units Age in 2010
Renter-Occupied - Single Family
Renter-Occupied - Multifamily
Owner-Occupied - Single Family
Owner-Occupied - Multifamily
Housing Needs Change with Age – Stronger Region
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
15-34 35-54 55-74 75+ Number of Housing Units Age in 2010
Renter-Occupied - Single Family
Renter-Occupied - Multifamily
Owner-Occupied - Single Family
Owner-Occupied - Multifamily
Demand for Housing that is Affordable for age 34<
Householder
Cohort, by Age
in 2010
Income
(As Percentage of Area
Median Income)
Projected Change in Housing Unit Demand, 2010 -
2030
Under 34
Less than 30% 591
Between 30-50% 737
50-80% 352
Greater than 80% 2,569
35-64
Less than 30% 490
Between 30-50% 177
50-80% -40
Greater than 80% 2,600
65+
Less than 30% -600
Between 30-50% -306
50-80% -88
Greater than 80% -3,838
Vacancy Rate ** 81
Grand Total 2,725
Source: MAPC Projections; **Vacancy Rate indicates the number of units necessary to stabilize the market
Salem is Composed of a Wide Range of Income Levels
Salem Today – Median Household Income
7.5%
7.9%
11.2%
8.1%
11%
18.9%
13%
13.8%
4.2%
4.2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $149,999
$150,000 to $199,999
$200,000 or more Household Income Source: American Community Survey, 2009-13
Salem Today – Income by Age
12%
22%
40%
14%
14%
43%
17%
13%
3%
14%
10%
5%
17% 14%
6%
25% 27%
2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
25-44 years 45-64 years 65+ years
over $100,000
$75,000-$99,999
$60,000-$74,999
$40,000-59,999
Between $20,000-$39,999
Under $20,000
Source: American Community Survey, 2009-13
There are renter households across age groups.
Salem Today – Housing Occupancy
62
737
1,470
1,937
1,203
834
1,220
793
380
812
2,297
1,617
2,275
942
564
569
322
329
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
15 to 24
years
25 to 34
years
35 to 44
years
45 to 54
years
55 to 59
years
60 to 64
years
65 to 74
years
75 to 84
years
85 years and
over Househouds Renter
Owner
Source: American Community Survey, 2009-13
45.8% of all Salem Households are Cost-Burdened
Paying 30% or More of Annual Income on Housing
Owners Renters
Housing Burden for
Middle-Income
Households
30% 6%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007-2011 American Community Survey
Cost-Burdened Households by Tenure
Salem Today – Cost Burden
•Attracting and retaining young workers is an
economic imperative
•By 2020, Salem will need between 720-
1,200 multifamily units and 210-260 single-
family units to keep pace with population
growth and smaller households
•Need for affordable housing is growing at
both ends of the age spectrum, particularly
for those age 34 and under
Conclusions
Questions?
Salem Housing Needs and Demand Analysis -
Discussion
Based on what you have heard this evening:
1.What surprised you?
2.What do you think we might have missed?
3.What should Salem do next in response to this
analysis?
Thank You!
For more information about the analysis, please contact:
Jennifer Raitt
Assistant Director of Land Use Planning/ Chief Housing Planner
617-933-0754 | jraitt@mapc.org
www.mapc.org
@MAPCMetroBoston